Tropical Storm TRUDY

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM TRUDY ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014
800 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014

...TRUDY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 99.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO LAGUNA DE CHACAHUA MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TRUDY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.0 WEST. TRUDY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H.  A SLOW NORTHWARD
TRACK IS LIKELY...WITH TRUDY EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN
MEXICO ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH WEAKENING
EXPECTED AFTER THAT TIME.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOW LIKELY SPREADING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND ON SATURDAY.

RAINFALL...TRUDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 6 TO 12 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 20 INCHES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN THE
STATES OF GUERRERO AND OAXACA IN SOUTHERN MEXICO.  THESE RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SURF...SWELLS AND DANGEROUS WAVES FROM TRUDY WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...LIKELY
CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

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