Hurricane ODILE

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014
500 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...ODILE STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...17.3N 106.3W
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO SAN LAZARO TO LA PAZ

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
* NORTH OF LA PAZ TO LORETO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST. ODILE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H.  A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT
A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ODILE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT...AND PASS NEAR OR
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ODILE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON SUNDAY
BEFORE WEAKENING LIKELY BEGINS ON MONDAY.

ODILE IS A LARGE HURRICANE.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES...315 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB...28.58 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH THIS EVENING.  HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BEGINNING EARLY MONDAY.  TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN BAJA
CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF AROUND 15 INCHES IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND WESTERN MICHOACAN.  THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

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