Hurricane MARIE

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HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
200 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014

Marie continues to slowly weaken. Although deep convection in the
eyewall has changed little during the past few hours, cloud tops
have warmed outside of the inner core region.  In addition, a dry
slot is now evident to the north of the center.  The initial
intensity is lowered a little to 75 kt, using a blend of the latest
Dvorak classifications.   The hurricane is currently over 25 C water
and it will be moving over even cooler water during the next few
days.  These unfavorable oceanic conditions combined with a more
stable air mass should cause the weakening trend to continue.
Marie is expected to lose all of its deep convection in 36 to 48
hours when it is forecast to be over sea surface temperatures around
22 C.

Satellite fixes suggest that Marie has moved a little to the left
of the previous forecast track.  The initial motion estimate is
285/11.  A turn to the northwest and then north-northwest is
expected during the next few days while the weakening system moves
around a strong mid-level high builds off the coast of the
northern Baja California.  Beyond a few days, the shallow system is
expected to slow down and turn westward or southwestward in the
low-level flow.  The NHC track forecast has been nudged southward,
mainly to account for the initial motion and position.

Very large southerly swells continue to affect much of the Baja
California peninsula and the southern California coast.  These
swells are expected to persist for another day or so and could
produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor
coastal flooding around the time of high tide.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0900Z 21.7N 122.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  27/1800Z 22.5N 124.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  28/0600Z 23.8N 127.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  28/1800Z 25.5N 129.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  29/0600Z 27.0N 130.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  30/0600Z 29.5N 132.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  31/0600Z 29.8N 134.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  01/0600Z 29.2N 135.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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