Hurricane MARIE

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HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Marie continues to rapidly intensify.  The eye of the hurricane has
become much more distinct in recent satellite images, and very cold
cloud tops surround the center.  The inner core convective pattern
is also quite symmetric, and a large curved band exists well to the
south of the center.  The initial wind speed estimate is 115 kt, a
category 4 hurricane, which is based on a Dvorak classification of
T6.0 from SAB.

The large scale conditions of low wind shear, high moisture, and
warm sea surface temperatures should favor additional strengthening
during the next day or so.  However, it should be noted that with
major hurricanes like Marie, intensity fluctuations are common due
to internal dynamics, or eyewall replacement cycles, that are not
easily forecast.  The hurricane is expected to begin weakening in a
couple of days when there will likely be some decrease in moisture
and sea surface temperatures gradually lower.  A more rapid
weakening is predicted toward the end of the forecast period when
Marie is forecast to move over water temperatures lower than 26
degrees Celsius.  The NHC intensity forecast is raised from the
previous one, given the observed strengthening, but shows a similar
trend.

The intense hurricane is moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt on
the southwestern periphery of a deep layer ridge.  The track
forecast is fairly straight forward.  A west-northwest to northwest
motion is predicted during the next 5 days as ridging to the north
of Marie remains the primary steering mechanism.  The NHC track
forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies close to
the multi-model consensus.

A partial ASCAT pass indicated that the wind field of Marie has
expanded significantly, and the wind radii have been adjusted
accordingly.  Although Marie is expected to remain well off the
coast of Mexico, very large swells will continue to affect
southwestern Mexico through tomorrow.  These swells, which are
likely to cause dangerous life-threatening surf, are forecast to
spread northward along the Baja California coast during the next few
days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 16.1N 109.9W  115 KT 135 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 16.6N 111.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 17.3N 113.2W  135 KT 155 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 18.4N 114.9W  130 KT 150 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 19.8N 116.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 72H  27/0600Z 22.4N 120.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  28/0600Z 25.0N 126.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  29/0600Z 28.0N 130.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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