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Hurricane MARIE


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014

Marie's rapid intensification has slowed some this afternoon.
Symmetric, cold cloud tops are persisting in association with the
hurricane and a ragged eye is just now starting to make an
appearance in the visible imagery.  Dvorak CI numbers from ADT,
SAB, and TAFB have not changed over the last six hours, but with an
eye evident the intensity is increased slightly to 80 kt. Continued
intensification is expected, but how much is fairly uncertain.  The
SSTs, moisture, and convective instability are likely to continue
being very conducive for the next three days. However, the GFS-based
vertical shear within the SHIPS model suggests about 15 kt of
deep-layer shear now and for the next three days.  The forecast
intensity is close to the SHIPS statistical model through three
days, which is higher than any of the other guidance.  It is of note
that the GFDL dynamical model barely maintains Marie as a hurricane
for the next three days, though this is considered an unlikely
scenario at this time. By days four and five, Marie should be
passing over cold waters and moving into a stable atmosphere.  The
forecast intensity at the long-lead times is close to the IVCN
consensus. This official intensity prediction is slightly below that
provided in the previous advisory from 48 hours onward.

TRMM and SSMIS microwave imagery provided evidence of the developing
eye feature and allowed for a more accurate determination of the
initial position and motion. The current motion is west-northwest at
10 kt, about the same as previously.  Marie is primarily being
steered by a deep-layer ridge to its northeast, which should
continue being the main steering factor for the entire forecast
period.  The track guidance remains in very close agreement through
day 5 and suggests more confidence than usual in the forecast
track. The official track prediction at days four and five is
shifted slightly westward compared to the previous advisory and is
based upon the multi-model TVCN consensus technique.

It is of note that small-sized Hurricane Karina is now expected by
most models to be absorbed into the circulation of Marie in about
four days.  While this process will lead to the dissipation of
Karina, it should have little effect on the larger-sized Marie.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 15.1N 107.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 15.6N 109.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 16.1N 111.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 16.8N 113.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 17.8N 114.8W  115 KT 135 MPH
 72H  26/1800Z 20.6N 118.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  27/1800Z 23.0N 123.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  28/1800Z 25.5N 128.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Landsea

NNNN


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Page last modified: Sunday, 23-Nov-2014 12:09:53 UTC