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Tropical Depression KARINA


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  56
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014

After a brief convection hiatus, a small band of thunderstorms has
redeveloped in the southwestern quadrant. As a result, tropical
depression status and a 25-kt intensity are being maintained for
this advisory. Although the easterly shear induced by the large
upper-level outflow pattern of Hurricane Marie located well to the
northeast of Karina should act to suppress the development of any
persistent deep convection after 12 hours, the cyclone could still
produce intermittent convective bursts until the system opens up
into a trough by Thursday.

The initial motion estimate is south-southeastward or 150/04 kt
based on a combination of conventional and microwave satellite
fixes. The small circulation of Karina is expected to be advected
southeastward and eastward within the southern semicircle of
Hurricane Marie over the next 24-36 hours as the the latter cyclone
continues to lift out to the northwest. The only change to the
previous advisory track has been the addition of points at 24 and
36 hours due to some of the models still depicting Karina as a small
but closed remnant low at those times periods.

Karina is now the seventh-longest-lasting tropical cyclone in the
eastern North Pacific basin during the satellite era.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/2100Z 16.2N 127.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 15.8N 126.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 16.0N 124.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  28/0600Z 16.7N 123.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Oct-2014 12:09:54 UTC