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Tropical Depression KARINA


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  54
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014

Karina continues to produce sufficient organized convection to be
considered a tropical cyclone despite ongoing easterly vertical
wind shear caused by the upper-level outflow from Hurricane Marie.
The initial intensity remains 30 kt, in agreement with a partial
ASCAT pass and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Due
to the ongoing shear, Karina is expected to degenerate into a
remnant low soon, and then be absorbed into the much larger Marie in
24 hours or so.

The initial motion is 100/3.  The cyclone is embedded in westerly
flow feeding into Marie, and a general east-southeastward motion
with some increase in forward speed is expected until the cyclone
is absorbed.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0900Z 17.0N 127.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 16.6N 126.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  27/0600Z...ABSORBED BY HURRICANE MARIE

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 22-Oct-2014 12:09:47 UTC