Tropical Storm KARINA

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TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  48
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
200 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014

Strong vertical shear being induced by an upper-level high centered
northeast of Karina continues to weaken the tropical storm.  Deep
convection continues in association with the cyclone, though it is
occurring only over the western semi-circle and it has decreased in
areal extent.  In fact, in the last few visible images, the
low-level center is popping out from underneath the thinning cirrus
overcast.  A "bulls-eye" ASCAT-B hit at 1802Z indicated a peak
surface wind between 40 and 45 kt, so the initial intensity is set
at 45 kt.  Strong vertical shear should continue to afflict Karina,
as the outflow from major hurricane Marie will soon begin to reach
the tropical storm.  The combination of high vertical shear,
marginally warm SSTs, and fairly dry air should lead to a gradual
weakening of the tropical cyclone.  Karina should become a remnant
low in about two days. However, the strong shear and mediocre
thermodynamics may lead to remnant low status earlier. The intensity
forecast is based upon a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM statistical
models, and is a bit lower than that from the previous advisory due
to the weakened initial condition of the cyclone.

The aforementioned ASCAT-B pass confirmed the rather small
tropical-storm-force wind radii of Karina.  A gradual reduction in
the cyclone's size is anticipated as the cyclone winds down.

Karina is being steered eastward at 8 kt around the large
circulation of post-tropical cyclone Lowell to its north-northeast.
The center of the system is now well known, due to the ASCAT-B pass
and the visible appearance of the low-level center. The steering
influence of Lowell will diminish by tomorrow as the distance
between the systems increases, and Karina should respond by slowing
down and turning gradually to the east-southeast.  In about 36
hours, Karina's track will mainly be influenced by the approaching
large and powerful Marie. Karina or its remnant low should be
accelerated toward the east until it becomes absorbed within Marie
between two and three days.  The forecast track is based upon the
TVCN multi-model track consensus technique and is slightly faster
than that issued in the previous advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/2100Z 17.8N 130.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 17.7N 129.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 17.5N 127.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 17.2N 127.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  26/1800Z 16.5N 126.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Landsea

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