Skip Navigation Links   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Hurricane KARINA


800 PM PDT THU AUG 14 2014

Karina's structure has degraded significantly since the last
advisory.  A 2326 UTC AMSU pass showed that the low-level center has
become displaced from the deep convection due to 20-25 kt of
easterly shear, as diagnosed by CIMSS at the University of
Wisconsin.  In addition, cloud top temperatures have warmed during
the past few hours.  The initial intensity remains 65 kt based on
the latest TAFB Dvorak estimate, but this could be a little

The recent evolution of Karina's structure makes the intensity
forecast quite tricky.  The SHIPS and LGEM models appear to be
responding to less of a positive contribution from persistence and
GOES satellite predictors, and show much less strengthening than
before.  The GFDL and HWRF, on the other hand, continue their
pattern of showing more immediate weakening.  Since vertical shear
is expected to remain rather strong for another 36-48 hours, Karina
may have a difficult time recovering.  Therefore, the new NHC
intensity forecast has been lowered for the entire forecast period
but still lies above all of the guidance, especially beyond 24
hours.  If Karina cannot recover soon, however, subsequent forecasts
will likely require additional decreases to fall in line with the
preponderance of the intensity model solutions.

The mid-tropospheric pattern consists of a mid-level high centered
over the southwestern U.S. with a ridge extending west-southwestward
over the Pacific.  The ridge is steering Karina westward, or
270/11 kt, and the subtropical ridge is expected to keep the cyclone
on a westward or west-northwestward track through the forecast
period.  Karina could begin to interact with one or two adjacent
disturbances toward the end of the forecast period, possibly forcing
it to move west-southwestward and at a slower speed by day 5.  The
track guidance envelope shifted to the north on this cycle, but it
was not enough to require a significant change from the previous
official forecast.


INIT  15/0300Z 17.1N 118.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 17.4N 119.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 17.9N 122.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 18.3N 124.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  17/0000Z 18.4N 126.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  18/0000Z 18.0N 130.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  19/0000Z 17.5N 133.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  20/0000Z 17.0N 136.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

Forecaster Berg


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 31-Dec-2014 12:09:40 UTC