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Tropical Storm KARINA


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
800 AM PDT THU AUG 14 2014

Deep convection has continued to increase and expand into a large
canopy of cloud tops of -80C to -85C. Passive microwave satellite
fixes indicate that the low-level center is located farther into the
northeastern portion of the convective cloud shield and that a
mid-level eye feature has developed closer to the center of the
cloud mass. However, the mid-level eye is displaced or tilted at
least 15-20 nmi southwest of the low-level center due to modest
northeasterly shear impinging on the cyclone. Despite the shear
conditions, satellite intensity estimate from TAFB and SAB are a
consensus T3.5/55 kt, and estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT and AMSU are
57 kt and 55 kt, respectively. Based on these data, the initial
intensity estimate is raised to 55 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 270/09 kt and is based primarily on
microwave satellite position fixes over the past 9 hours. The
forecast track and reasoning remain unchanged over the past 24 hours
with Karina expected to move in a general westward direction during
the forecast period due to the presence of a strong subtropical
ridge located to the north of the cyclone. By Day 5, however, the
forecast become a little murky due to several models developing
multiple tropical cyclones in the central Pacific and eastern
Pacific basins that begin to interact with Karina in some form or
fashion. Rather than committing to any one particular solution, the
NHC track forecast just shows a significant slow down in Karina's
motion. The official forecast track has been nudged slightly south
of the previous advisory track and lies close to the consensus model
TVCE, except at 120 hours due to the expected slower forward speed.

Northeasterly shear of 10 to 15 kt has been affecting Karina during
the past 12 hours or so, and the shear is expected to increase
slightly over the next 24 hours. However, other environmental and
oceanic conditions are expected to be favorable for additional
strengthening to occur, so the NHC intensity forecast still calls
for steady strengthening through the next 36 hours or so, followed
by a leveling off of the intensity due to the cyclone moving over
marginal SSTs near 26C and into a more stable air mass. The official
intensity forecast is essentially just an update of the previous
forecast, and remains above all of the available intensity guidance
but follows the development trend in the SHIPS model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 17.2N 115.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 17.4N 117.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 17.6N 119.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  16/0000Z 17.9N 122.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  16/1200Z 18.1N 124.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  17/1200Z 18.2N 128.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  18/1200Z 17.9N 131.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  19/1200Z 17.8N 133.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NNNN


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Page last modified: Saturday, 25-Oct-2014 12:09:40 UTC