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Tropical Storm HERNAN


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082014
200 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014

Satellite data indicate that the depression has strengthened.  The
cloud pattern has become better organized during the past several
hours with banding features now more distinct and symmetric around
the center.  A recent ASCAT pass showed maximum winds near 35 kt,
and Dvorak classifications from TAFB and UW-CIMSS also support a
similar wind speed.  Based on these data, the initial intensity is
increased to 35 kt, making the cyclone Tropical Storm Hernan.

Some additional strengthening appears likely during the next day or
so while the environmental conditions remain favorable.  Beyond that
time, however, Hernan will be moving over cooler water and into an
atmosphere of stronger shear and dry air.  These expected hostile
conditions should cause the storm to lose strength.  The intensity
guidance has not changed significantly, and this forecast is an
update of the previous one.

Hernan is moving northwestward at about 13 kt on the southwest side
of a strong mid-level ridge centered over the southern United
States.  This steering pattern is expected to persist, and that
should keep the system moving west-northwestward to northwestward at
about the same speed for the next couple of days.  After that time,
a gradual turn toward the west with a decrease in forward speed is
expected when the weakening cyclone is steered by the lighter
low-level flow.  The models have shifted northward this cycle, and
the official track forecast is adjusted in that direction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/2100Z 15.4N 108.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 16.7N 110.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 18.3N 112.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 19.7N 114.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  28/1800Z 20.9N 117.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  29/1800Z 22.6N 121.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  30/1800Z 23.0N 124.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  31/1800Z 23.0N 127.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 27-Nov-2014 12:09:35 UTC