Skip Navigation Links   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Tropical Storm GENEVIEVE


200 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014

Deep convection began developing near the center of the low
pressure system located near 134W roughly around 0000 UTC.  The
convection has persisted since that time, has become more organized,
and appears to at least partially cover the low-level center.  A
0553 UTC ASCAT-B pass suggests that the circulation may still be a
little elongated from east to west, but the center is sufficiently
well defined.  The ASCAT data also showed an area of
tropical-storm-force winds to the north and east of the center.
Based on this information, advisories are being initiated on
Tropical Storm Genevieve.

Genevieve is located to the south of a break in the subtropical
ridge and still appears to be embedded within the Intertropical
Convergence Zone, which is probably preventing it from making much
northward progress.  The initial motion is 275/9 kt.  The break in
the ridge should cause Genevieve to decelerate during the next 24
hours, but it should then gradually regain speed after 36 hours.
There is some noticeable spread among the track models, with the
GFDL and GFS taking a stronger Genevieve on a more northern track
and the ECMWF showing the storm gaining very little latitude.  Given
Genevieve's attachment to the ITCZ, a more southern track wouldn't
be surprising.  The official forecast is near the middle of the
guidance envelope and just to the south of the model consensus TVCE.

The upper-level environment is only marginally conducive for
further strengthening during the next 36 hours or so.  A band of
strong upper-level westerly winds is located not too far to the
north of Genevieve, and any northward progress would likely bring
the storm into a higher-shear environment.  There is more certainty
that vertical shear will increase by 48 hours, and Genevieve is
therefore forecast to gradually weaken after that time, likely
becoming a remnant low by the end of the forecast period.  The
official intensity forecast is very close to the intensity consensus


INIT  25/0900Z 12.2N 134.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 12.3N 135.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 12.4N 136.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  26/1800Z 12.6N 137.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  27/0600Z 12.9N 139.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  28/0600Z 13.5N 142.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  29/0600Z 14.0N 145.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  30/0600Z 14.5N 149.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Forecaster Berg


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 31-Dec-2014 12:09:33 UTC