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Tropical Storm DOUGLAS


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014
800 PM PDT FRI JUL 04 2014

Douglas is hanging on as a tropical storm.  After being devoid of
deep convection for much of the day, a small area has redeveloped to
the northeast of the center.  The initial wind speed is held at 35
kt based on earlier scatterometer data and a Dvorak pattern
T-number of 2.5 from TAFB.  Douglas is currently over cold 23C
waters and in a stable airmass.  These hostile conditions should
cause weakening, and the cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low
by 24 hours.  This is delayed slightly from the previous forecast.

The storm is moving northwestward at about 6 kt.  A low- to
mid-level ridge to the northeast of Douglas should keep the system
on a steady northwestward path until it dissipates in a few days.
The track forecast is nudged to the north of the previous one, and
is very near the multi-model consensus TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 22.4N 119.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 23.1N 120.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 24.1N 121.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/1200Z 25.0N 122.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/0000Z 25.8N 123.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

NNNN


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Oct-2014 12:09:41 UTC