Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane CRISTINA


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014
200 PM PDT FRI JUN 13 2014

A 1657 UTC AMSU pass suggests that Cristina's eyewall replacement
is probably almost complete, and coincidentally, visible satellite
images show a ragged eye trying to re-form.  The convective pattern
is somewhat lopsided, however, and objective ADT estimates have
continued to slowly decrease.  Based on the latest Dvorak estimates,
the initial intensity is set at 80 kt.

Now that the eyewall replacement appears complete, it is not out of
the question that Cristina could re-intensify a bit or at least
maintain its intensity in the short term while environmental
conditions remain relatively favorable.  From this point forward,
however, vertical shear will be gradually increasing and sea surface
temperatures will be decreasing.  Therefore, the gradual weakening
trend currently in progress is expected to continue during the next
three days, with Cristina likely to become a remnant low by day 4.
The NHC intensity forecast is between the intensity consensus and
the Florida State Superensemble, which dissipates Cristina by day 3.

Cristina is still moving northwestward at about 7 kt.  The cyclone
is expected to begin slowing down in about 24 hours when the mid-
level ridge to its north weakens.  Low- to mid-level ridging will
then steer Cristina west-northwestward through the remainder of the
forecast period.  The guidance is in fairly good agreement on
Cristina's future track, and no significant changes to the NHC
forecast were required on this advisory cycle.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/2100Z 18.5N 110.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 19.1N 111.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 19.6N 111.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 19.9N 112.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 20.3N 113.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  16/1800Z 21.0N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  17/1800Z 21.5N 116.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  18/1800Z 21.5N 117.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 02-Oct-2014 12:09:27 UTC