Skip Navigation Links   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Hurricane AMANDA


200 AM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014

Amanda is still rapidly intensifying.  The eye has become more
distinct and a large ring of cloud tops colder than -70C
surround the center.  The Dvorak classifications from TAFB
and SAB are 6.5/127 kt and 6.0/115 kt, respectively.  A blend of
these estimates and the latest ADT values from UW-CIMSS support
increasing the initial wind speed to 120 kt, making Amanda a
category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

The major hurricane could gain some more strength today while the
atmospheric and oceanic environments remain conducive for
intensification.  After that time, however, southerly shear is
expected to increase and that should start the weakening process.
The GFS and ECMWF models show Amanda beginning to tilt vertically
in response to the shear in about 24 hours, with the low- and
mid-level centers eventually decoupling.  Gradually decreasing sea
surface temperatures and drier mid-level air should also aid in the
weakening trend.  The NHC intensity forecast is a little above the
previous one in the short term to account for the higher initial
wind speed, but is otherwise unchanged and follows the intensity
model consensus IVCN.

The cyclone is moving slowly west-northwestward, with the
initial motion estimate the same as before, 295/4.  A turn to the
northwest is expected today followed by a northward motion tonight
as Amanda gets embedded in the flow between a mid- to upper-level
trough to its west and a mid-level ridge to its east.  A
northeastward turn is predicted in about 4 days when the trough to
the west of Amanda gets closer to the system.  The NHC track
forecast is very close to the previous one and near the latest
FSSE and TVCE guidance.

Based on the current intensity of the system, Amanda is the second
strongest May hurricane in the eastern Pacific basin on record,
behind Hurricane Adolph in 2001.


INIT  25/0900Z 11.7N 110.9W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 11.9N 111.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 12.5N 111.3W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  26/1800Z 13.4N 111.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  27/0600Z 14.3N 111.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  28/0600Z 15.6N 111.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  29/0600Z 16.4N 111.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  30/0600Z 17.5N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

Forecaster Cangialosi


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 31-Dec-2014 12:09:24 UTC