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Tropical Depression ONE-E


200 PM PDT THU MAY 22 2014

Deep convection associated with an area of low pressure well to the
southwest of Mexico has gradually become better organized during the
past 12 to 24 hours, and a 1708 UTC ASCAT-B pass indicated that the
system has a sufficiently well-defined center.  Therefore,
advisories are being initiated on the first tropical depression of
the eastern North Pacific season.  The initial intensity is set at
25 kt based on the ASCAT data and satellite estimates of T1.5 from
both TAFB and SAB.

The depression has been moving slowly toward the west-northwest
while located on the edge of a mid-level ridge extending west from
Mexico, and the initial motion estimate is 285/3 kt.  The depression
is expected to remain just to the west of the ridge and to the south
of a deep-layer cyclone centered over California, which will likely
keep it in a weak steering environment for the next 3 to 4 days.  In
fact, the ECMWF model even shows the depression becoming nearly
stationary or meandering for a few days due to the weak steering.
The official forecast shows a relatively slow track toward the
west-northwest during the next 5 days and is close to the model
consensus TVCE.

The depression is embedded in an environment of light vertical
shear, which will likely support at least gradual intensification
during the next few days.  There is some disagreement among the
intensity models as to how much strengthening will occur, however.
For example, the statistical LGEM keeps the depression below
tropical storm strength for about 48 hours.  On the other hand, the
SHIPS RI index indicates a 42hance of a 25-kt increase in winds
within the next 24 hours.  With the RI index relatively high, the
official forecast is higher than the LGEM for the first few days.
By days 4 and 5, vertical shear is expected to strengthen, and the
intensity is forecast to level off or decrease by the end of the
forecast period.


INIT  22/2100Z 10.3N 107.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  23/0600Z 10.5N 108.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  23/1800Z 10.8N 108.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  24/0600Z 11.1N 109.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  24/1800Z 11.4N 109.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  25/1800Z 11.7N 110.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  26/1800Z 12.0N 111.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  27/1800Z 12.0N 113.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

Forecaster Berg


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 31-Dec-2014 12:09:24 UTC