Hurricane CRISTOBAL

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HURRICANE CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014
0900 UTC WED AUG 27 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N  71.9W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 100SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT.......180NE 175SE  60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 360SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N  71.9W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N  72.0W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 32.4N  71.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...180NE 175SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 34.7N  69.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 90NE 120SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...180NE 210SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 37.5N  63.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 90NE 120SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...180NE 210SE  70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 40.5N  56.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 120SE  70SW  50NW.
34 KT...180NE 210SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 48.0N  43.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
34 KT...180NE 220SE 200SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 53.0N  32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N  71.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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