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Tropical Storm ARTHUR


ZCZC MIATCMAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
0900 UTC WED JUL 02 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO
OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF BOGUE INLET....AND FROM NORTH OF OREGON INLET
TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING EASTERN ALBEMARLE
SOUND.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF BOGUE INLET NORTH
CAROLINA
* NORTH OF OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WATCH
AREA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N  79.1W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  70SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N  79.1W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N  79.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 29.3N  79.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 30.5N  79.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 32.1N  78.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 34.2N  76.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE  60SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 40.0N  69.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  90SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 46.0N  62.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 50.0N  55.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N  79.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


NNNN


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 30-Jul-2014 12:09:02 UTC