Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane ARTHUR


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014
500 PM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014

The cloud pattern of Arthur remains very symmetric with a hint of an
eye remaining in visibile and infrared satellite imagery, although
the cloud tops have continued to gradually warm during the day.
Recent reconnaissance data show that the radius of maximum winds has
increased, which is likely the first sign that the hurricane is
beginning the transition to a post-tropical cyclone. The aircraft
data also indicate that the winds aloft are not mixing down as
efficiently as they were overnight and this morning. In fact, during
the latest pass through the southeastern quadrant the aircraft
measured a peak 700-mb flight level wind of 103 kt, but the surface
winds underneath were only 63 kt. Based on these data, the initial
intensity is lowered to 70 kt.  Arthur is now located over sea
surface temperatures of around 24C. The hurricane will be moving
over progressively colder waters and into an area of increasing
southwesterly shear, which should result in continued weakening.
Global model guidance indicates that Arthur should become
post-tropical tomorrow morning.  After the extratropical transition,
the cyclone is forecast to continue weakening as it moves over the
North Atlantic.

The initial motion estimate is 040/23 kt. The hurricane should
continue to move northeastward during the next 24 to 36 hours in
deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching deep-layer
trough. After that time, the post-tropical cyclone is forecast to
slow down and eventually turn east-northeastward.  There is still
a large amount of spread in the track guidance after 48 hours. The
updated NHC forecast is between the ECWMF and GFS models, and leans
toward guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.

Winds in excess of gale/tropical storm force are expected
over portions of eastern Maine on Saturday.  Because Arthur is
expected to be extratropical by Saturday morning, and because the
strong winds in Maine will be post-frontal, this threat is being
handled by high wind warnings issued by local NWS offices.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/2100Z 39.4N  71.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  05/0600Z 42.2N  68.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  05/1800Z 45.3N  65.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  06/0600Z 47.0N  61.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  06/1800Z 49.4N  57.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  07/1800Z 56.0N  51.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  08/1800Z 60.0N  49.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  09/1800Z 61.0N  42.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 16-Sep-2014 12:09:07 UTC