Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm RAYMOND


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
800 AM PDT FRI OCT 25 2013
 
INFRARED AND FIRST-LIGHT GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY SHOWS RAYMOND TO HAVE
A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH PROMINENT BANDING FEATURES.
ADDITIONALLY...THE LATEST SSMIS MICROWAVE PICTURE APPEARS TO DEPICT
DEVELOPING INNER CORE FEATURES.  THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT AT
ADVISORY TIME...WHICH MATCHES A BLEND OF THE TAFB AND SAB INTENSITY
ESTIMATES.
 
DESPITE THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY...THE CURRENT POSITION IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. THE MOTION IS ANALYZED AT 240 DEGREES AT 7 KT...AND
RAYMOND IS PRIMARILY BEING STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS
NORTHWEST.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE
NEXT TWO DAYS.  BY DAY THREE...RAYMOND WILL BEGIN TO BE INFLUENCED
BY A DIGGING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST.  THIS COMPLEX TROUGH SHOULD BOTH TURN THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE NORTHWARD AS WELL AS INCREASE THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND
ADVECTION OF DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM.  BY DAY FOUR OR
FIVE...RAYMOND IS ANTICIPATED TO RECURVE OFF TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST AT A QUITE LOW LATITUDE...BUT STILL REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE OF MEXICO.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SCENARIO THAN PREVIOUSLY.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN
THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND A THREE MODEL...
GFS...ECMWF...AND FIM...BLEND AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE TVCE
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE.
 
RAYMOND SHOULD INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO...AS IT IS
MOVING OVER WARM 28C WATERS AND MOVING THROUGH A MOIST UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WITH VERY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR. SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY...
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY BULLISH WITH RAYMOND FOR THE
NEXT TWO DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX
SHOWS ABOUT A 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  BY DAY THREE TO FOUR...THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
INCREASE QUICKLY FOLLOWED SHORTLY IN TIME BY A DRIER MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND COOLER SSTS.  AROUND DAY FIVE...THESE HOSTILE
FACTORS MAY CAUSE RAYMOND BEGIN TO DECOUPLE WITH THE MID-LEVEL
VORTEX SEPARATING FROM THE SURFACE CIRCULATION.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS
CLOSEST TO THE STATISTICAL SHIPS MODEL. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/1500Z 13.7N 109.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 13.5N 110.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 13.5N 112.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 13.5N 114.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 13.7N 116.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  28/1200Z 15.5N 118.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  29/1200Z 18.0N 118.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  30/1200Z 19.5N 117.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:38 UTC