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Hurricane RAYMOND


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
200 AM PDT WED OCT 23 2013
 
SATELLITE DATA SHOW THAT THE STRUCTURE OF RAYMOND HAS DEGRADED A
LITTLE TONIGHT. THE EYE IS NO LONGER DISCERNABLE IN THE LATEST
MICROWAVE IMAGES...AND BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME LESS DEFINED
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THIS DEGRADED
APPEARANCE COULD BE THE RESULT OF COOL WATER THAT HAS BEEN UPWELLED
BENEATH THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 65 KT BASED
ON THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...BUT THIS ESTIMATE IS PROBABLY
GENEROUS. SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO DUE TO WESTERLY SHEAR...AND THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
DURING THAT TIME. BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN
WHILE RAYMOND MOVES OVER WARM WATER. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW
THE CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND PLACES MORE WEIGHT ON THE DYNAMICAL-STATISTICAL
AIDS AND TRENDS IN THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

RAYMOND HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AS IT
REMAINS LOCATED IN WEAK STEERING BETWEEN A TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST
AND A RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE TO EXPAND TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN WILL FINALLY CAUSE RAYMOND TO MOVE
WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM MEXICO LATER TODAY. A TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST IS PREDICTED IN 4 TO 5 DAYS WHEN RAYMOND REACHES
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0900Z 16.0N 101.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  23/1800Z 15.8N 102.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  24/0600Z 15.5N 104.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  24/1800Z 15.3N 105.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  25/0600Z 15.1N 107.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  26/0600Z 14.6N 110.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  27/0600Z 14.5N 114.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  28/0600Z 16.0N 117.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:38 UTC