Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane RAYMOND


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013
200 PM PDT MON OCT 21 2013
 
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE EYE OF RAYMOND HAS BECOME A LITTLE
MORE DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN FACT...EARLIER MICROWAVE AND
GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY SHOWED A VERY SMALL EYE AROUND 15Z...SO
PERHAPS THE STORM HAS GONE THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACMENT CYCLE
TODAY. DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES AT 18Z WERE T6.0/115 KT FROM SAB
AND T5.5/102 KT FROM TAFB...AND BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 110 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RAYMOND IS NEAR ITS PEAK...ALTHOUGH EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND INNER-CORE DYNAMICS COULD LEAD TO SHORT-TERM
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS THAT ARE
NOT SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN
AFTER THAT TIME...AS THE SHEAR VECTOR BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND
RAYMOND MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND IS CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE LGEM MODEL.

RAYMOND HAS BEEN STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW...AND LITTLE
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WHILE THE
STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK. THE GFDL AND HWRF CONTINUE TO BRING
RAYMOND NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS STILL SHOW A SLOW SOUTHWARD OR
SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION. THE NHC TRACK INDICATES LITTLE MOTION DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND SOME ERRATIC
MOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE NORTH/SOUTH
SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE LATER IN THE PERIOD...SO
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK FORECAST
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. OVERALL...THE NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BY DAY 5. 

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE HURRICANE AND HOW CLOSE IT GETS
TO THE COAST...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/2100Z 16.3N 102.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 16.4N 102.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 16.3N 102.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 16.3N 102.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  23/1800Z 16.2N 103.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  24/1800Z 15.8N 105.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  25/1800Z 15.5N 108.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  26/1800Z 15.5N 111.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:38 UTC