Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression PRISCILLA


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162013
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013
 
PRISCILLA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH EACH
A LITTLE BIT SMALLER IN COVERAGE THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  DVORAK
DATA-T NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED SINCE THIS MORNING...SO THE CYCLONE
IS BEING INITIALIZED AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION.  NOW THAT THE DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR HAS DIMINISHED...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS A LITTLE BIT
LESS EXPOSED FROM THIS LATEST ROUND OF CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR SURROUNDING THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
HAMPER SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  PRISCILLA IS FORECAST
TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY 36 HOURS DUE TO INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COLDER WATER...AND THEN DISSIPATE BY 96
HOURS.
 
PRISCILLA HAS MADE A HARD LEFT TURN AND IS NOW MOVING 300/7 KT.
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO STEER IT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD UNTIL
DISSIPATION.  THE TRACK MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT WESTWARD...WITH
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS LYING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...SO THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT
DIRECTION AS WELL. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/2100Z 17.7N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 18.1N 118.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  16/1800Z 18.7N 119.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  17/0600Z 19.2N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  17/1800Z 19.4N 121.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  18/1800Z 18.7N 123.6W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:36 UTC