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Tropical Depression NARDA


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142013
800 PM PDT WED OCT 09 2013

NARDA CONTINUES TO GENEATE DEEP CONVECTION IN A SMALL BAND TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  SCATTEROMETER OVERPASSES 6-9 HOURS AGO
INDICATED 30-35 KT WINDS WEST OF THE CENTER...AND THE MOST RECENT
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB IS 30 KT.  BASED ON THESE
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.  WHILE THE FORECAST
TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OVER INCREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD CAUSE
NARDA TO WEAKEN.  THUS...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO
A REMNANT LOW IN 12 HOURS AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 72 HOURS.

NARDA NOW APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION OF 245/2.  A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0300Z 16.5N 128.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 16.2N 129.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  11/0000Z 15.7N 130.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  11/1200Z 15.1N 131.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  12/0000Z 14.7N 132.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:34 UTC