Tropical Storm MANUEL

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TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013
200 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013

THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE OF MANUEL HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE WITH A
WELL-DEFINED EYE FEATURE NOTED IN THE LASTEST MICROWAVE IMAGES.  A
RAGGED EYE HAS ALSO RECENTLY APPEARED IN VISIBLE STATELLITE
PICTURES.  THE LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 3.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB AND 3.4 FROM UW/CIMSS ADT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED
TO 60 KT...A LITTLE ABOVE THESE ESTIMATES...BASED ON THE IMPROVED
SATELLITE PRESENTATION DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  GIVEN THE
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATER...
MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT DAY 
OR SO.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE INNER CORE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT
WITH LAND WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE WEAKENING.  SINCE THE NEW NHC
FORECAST SHOWS MANUEL NEARING THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AS A
HURRICANE...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF
THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO.
 
THE STORM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 4 KT. THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AND COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT ON A TRACK NEAR OR OVER THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. THE
GFS SHOWS LANDFALL IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE HWRF IS FASTER
TO THE COAST. THE ECMWF TAKES MANUEL TO THE COAST BEFORE IT TURNS
WESTWARD. THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD ONCE AGAIN AND IS
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT
TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS MANUEL TURNING WESTWARD AT THE
COAST...OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE MODELS THAT KEEP THE CYCLONE
MEANDERING OFFSHORE.  MODEL TRENDS...HOWEVER...SUGGEST THAT FURTHER
EASTWARD SHIFTS ARE LIKELY.  
 
BECAUSE OF THE ANGLE OF APPROACH OF MANUEL TO THE COASTLINE OF
MAINLAND MEXICO...THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE AND WHEN
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS WILL REACH THE
COAST.  RESIDENTS WITHIN THE ENTIRE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD
PREPARE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS.    
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/2100Z 23.9N 108.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  19/0600Z 24.5N 108.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  19/1800Z 25.0N 108.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  20/0600Z 25.3N 108.6W   70 KT  80 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 48H  20/1800Z 25.4N 108.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 72H  21/1800Z 25.4N 109.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 96H  22/1800Z 25.4N 109.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
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