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Tropical Storm MANUEL


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013
 
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OF MANUEL HAS
BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC WITH PLENTY OF CURVED BANDS NEAR THE CENTER.
DVORAK...ADT...AND AMSU-BASED MICROWAVE ESTIMATES ALL SUGGEST AN
INTENSITY OF ABOUT 45 KT...WHICH WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY...
ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. SOME STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY
BEFORE LANDFALL GIVEN THE WARM WATER AND RELATIVELY LIGHT SHEAR...
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS
PREDICTION. MANUEL SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
MEXICO...AND IT COULD EVEN DISSIPATE BY 36H.
 
THE STORM IS GRADUALLY TURNING LEFTWARD...NOW 345/6.  MID-LEVEL
RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...CAUSING MANUEL
TO TURN A LITTLE MORE TO THE LEFT AND ACCELERATE.  THERE HAS BEEN
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE NHC FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THERE IS SOME INDICATION
THAT THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL MIGHT MAKE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AGAIN SOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BUT THIS IS CONSIDERED A
REMOTE POSSIBILITY AT THIS TIME.
 
THE WIND AND 12-FT SEAS RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED GREATLY IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT BASED ON THE LATEST ASCAT/SHIP DATA...
ALTHOUGH THESE WINDS/SEAS ARE PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER-
SCALE CYCLONIC GYRE THAT THE TROPICAL STORM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN.
 
IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE
COMBINATION OF MANUEL AND TROPICAL STORM INGRID IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO.  THIS WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT
HAZARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/2100Z 16.8N 102.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 17.7N 103.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 19.1N 103.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  16/0600Z 20.3N 104.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:32 UTC