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Tropical Storm MANUEL


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013

MANUEL CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED WITH CONVECTION ON THE
UPSWING.  A CURVED BAND IS NOW WRAPPING MOST OF THE WAY AROUND THE
CENTER...WITH AN IRREGULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FORMING.  WHILE
THE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED...THE DUSSELDORF EXPRESS
REPORTED A PRESSURE OF ABOUT 997 MB WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...SUGGESTING A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF MANUEL OF 994 MB OR SO. 
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 45 KT...A BIT ABOVE THE DVORAK 
ESTIMATES AND NEAR THE KNAFF-ZEHR-COURTNEY WIND-PRESSURE
RELATIONSHIP.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND MANUEL COULD GET A LITTLE
STRONGER THAN THE 50 KT SHOWN BELOW BEFORE LANDFALL.  THE CYCLONE
SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATE ON SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.   
 
THE STORM IS FINALLY MOVING NORTHWARD...ABOUT 355/5.  MANUEL SHOULD
GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS A RIDGE STRENGTHENS
SLIGHTLY OVER MEXICO.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
FORECAST PATH...AND THE LATEST NHC TRACK PREDICTION IS VERY CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE
COMBINATION OF MANUEL AND TROPICAL STORM INGRID IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO.  THIS WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT
HAZARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/1500Z 16.2N 102.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 17.0N 102.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 18.3N 103.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 36H  16/0000Z 19.5N 104.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  16/1200Z 20.5N 104.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:32 UTC