Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm MANUEL


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS A LITTLE FARTHER
WEST THAN ESTIMATED EARLIER THIS MORNING...WITH A GROWING BALL OF
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  ASCAT DATA SUGGESTED THE MAXIMUM WINDS
WERE ABOUT 35 KT...AND THIS IS USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. 
WHILE THE AREA OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS IS SMALL...THE
CIRCULATION OF MANUEL IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MUCH LARGER CYCLONIC
GYRE THAT CONTAINS LOTS OF STRONG WINDS NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS STRUCTURE MAKES THE INTENSITY FORECAST
TRICKY SINCE OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SEEM CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS
FROM ASCAT...MANUEL SHOULD HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO INTENSIFY...AND
THE NHC PREDICTION IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE CONSENSUS AT THE UPPER END
OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM.  

INSTEAD OF A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OCCURRING...IT SEEMS
LIKE MANUEL IS HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...295/5. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGEST THE STORM SHOULD TAKE A NORTHWARD TURN
RELATIVELY SOON DUE TO THE RIDGE WEAKENING OVER MEXICO. HOWEVER...
THE MODEL SPREAD HAS GROWN SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...WITH THE
NORMALLY RELIABLE ECMWF A FAIR DISTANCE WEST OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. THIS IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH THE GLOBAL
MODELS STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE INTERACTION OF THE RIDGE OVER
MEXICO...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AND TROPICAL STORM INGRID. THE NEW
NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED WESTWARD...ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IT WOULD NOT BE VERY SURPRISING
IF FURTHER WESTWARD ADJUSTMENTS ARE REQUIRED.  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/2100Z 15.6N 102.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 16.0N 102.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 16.8N 102.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 17.9N 102.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 18.9N 103.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:32 UTC