Tropical Depression LORENA
ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122013
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 07 2013
A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION BRIEFLY REDEVELOPED NEAR LORENA...
PROBABLY JUST AN ARTIFACT OF THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM PERIOD...AND THE
CENTER IS AGAIN BECOMING EXPOSED ON FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY.
DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST 30 KT IS A GOOD INITIAL INTENSITY. AS THE
CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO MORE STABLE AIR...IT
SHOULD LOSE ANY SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. THE LATEST NHC WIND SPEED PREDICTION IS A BLEND OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE LATEST CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. LORENA WILL
PROBABLY BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 12H.
BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 300/5. LORENA IS EXPECTED TO
SLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE IT GETS CAUGHT IN
RATHER LIGHT LOW-LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS. THE LATEST FORECAST SHOWS
LITTLE NET MOTION AFTER 12H...AND THE SMALL CIRCULATION SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...IF NOT SOONER.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/1500Z 23.8N 111.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 24.0N 112.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 08/1200Z 24.0N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 09/0000Z 24.0N 112.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NNNN