Tropical Storm KIKO
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TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013
KIKO IS CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY AT A FAST PACE. MICROWAVE IMAGES
INDICATE THAT THE STORM HAS AN INNER CORE...AND EVEN THE LAST FEW
VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGESTED A WEAK EYE FEATURE WITHIN A MORE
SYMMETRICAL CDO. THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 60 KT...A BIT HIGHER THAN
THE LATEST SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS...WHICH HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
KEEPING UP WITH THIS CYCLONE. THE PACE OF STRENGTHENING SHOULD
DIMINISH SOON AS KIKO IS MOVING ACROSS COOLING WATERS...AND WILL BE
CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM WITHIN 12-24H. AFTER THAT TIME...A MORE
STEADY DECREASE IN STRENGTH SEEMS PROBABLE DUE TO INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...COOLER WATERS...AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR
ALOFT. THE LATEST NHC PREDICTION IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...AND THE FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN
ABOUT THREE DAYS AND DISSIPATE IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS...CONSISTENT WITH
THE GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS.
KIKO HAS BEEN SURPRISINGLY MOVING A BIT EAST OF NORTH DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS...010/6. IT APPEARS TO BE ROTATING AROUND THE EAST
SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TAKEN A NOTABLE SHIFT TO THE EAST...AND
THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED EASTWARD BY 30-45 NMI AT MOST TIME
PERIODS ON THIS PACKAGE. IN 36-48H...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY
DECOUPLE VERTICALLY...AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS IN LIGHT LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 01/0300Z 20.0N 115.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 20.8N 115.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 21.6N 116.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 22.2N 116.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 22.3N 116.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 22.2N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
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FORECASTER BLAKE
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