Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm IVO


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092013
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 24 2013

THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IVO HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE REMAINING ORGANIZED CONVECTION NOW IN THIN
BANDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  BASED ON THIS AND THE CONTINUED
MOTION OVER COLDER WATER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 35
KT.  VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE ARE STILL MULTIPLE
LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTERS PRESENT...WHICH CONTINUES TO COMPLICATE
THE CENTER FINDING.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 335/10.  IVO SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL THE SYSTEM SHEARS APART IN
24-36 HR.  AFTER THAT...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SHOULD STALL WEST OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHILE THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL REMNANTS
CONTINUE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
AND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.
 
IVO SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE COLDER WATER WEST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 36 HR AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY
96 HR.
 
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IVO IS SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  EVEN THOUGH IVO IS WEAKENING...MOISTURE
FROM THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/2100Z 22.9N 114.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 24.2N 114.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 25.6N 115.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  26/0600Z 26.5N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  26/1800Z 26.8N 116.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/1800Z 27.0N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:27 UTC