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Tropical Storm GIL


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013

THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH GIL HAS DECREASED AGAIN THIS
EVENING...WITH THE REMAINING CONVECTION IN A SMALL CLUSTER NEAR THE
CENTER AND IN SMALL BANDS NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. 
MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE INNER CORE OF THE CYCLONE HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
REDUCED TO 45 KT...AND DATA FROM THE INDIAN OSCAT SCATTEROMETER
SUGGESTS THIS COULD BE GENEROUS.

THE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED AND IS NOW 275/8.  GIL IS BEING
STEERED BY A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.  THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT
THESE FEATURES WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT
48 TO 72 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST.  AFTER THAT...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER IN
TURNING THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD.  THIS MAY BE DUE IN PART TO THIS
MODEL MAINTAINING A STRONGER CYCLONE AND IN PART TO THE MODEL
FORECAST FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E...CURRENTLY ABOUT 575 N MI
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GIL.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST RELIES ON THE OTHER
GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH SHOW A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AFTER 72 HR.  THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES CLOSE
TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCN.

GIL IS ON THE EDGE OF AN AREA OF VERY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
JUST TO ITS NORTH.  HOWEVER...AS THE STORM TURNS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
IT SHOULD MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. 
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVERGENT.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...FORECAST THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS
SUGGESTING THAT GIL COULD INGEST DRIER AIR.  ON THE OTHER HAND...
THE STATISTICAL SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS RESPOND TO THE MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT BY FORECASTING RE-INTENSIFICATION AFTER 48 HR.  THE NEW
INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARD THE CONSENSUS OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS AND FORECASTS A GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT
5 DAYS...AND IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT THAT GIL COULD DISSIPATE BEFORE
THAT TIME.  THE NEW FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0300Z 15.3N 134.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 15.0N 135.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 14.4N 136.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 13.9N 138.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 13.4N 139.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 13.0N 142.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  08/0000Z 13.0N 145.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
120H  09/0000Z 13.0N 148.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:24 UTC