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Hurricane GIL


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013
200 PM PDT WED JUL 31 2013
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL A RAGGED EYE
EMBEDDED WITHIN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...CDO. IN ADDITION...THERE
ARE SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING AROUND THE CDO. ON
THIS BASIS...GIL HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS IN THIS
ADVISORY. GIVEN THAT THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND THE OCEAN IS WARM...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS
FOR GIL TO INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE
GLOBAL MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFS...FORECAST AN INCREASE IN THE
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER OR NEAR THE CYCLONE DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS PATTERN...IN COMBINATION WITH
COOLER WATERS...SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND 36 OR 48
HOURS.
 
GIL HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. GIL CONTINUES TO BE
STEERED BY THE FLOW SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST
TO PERSIST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP GIL ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...BOTH THE GFS AND
THE ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THAT GIL WILL BECOME VERTICALLY DECOUPLED
AND A WEAKENED LOWER-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD...STEERED
BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL
MODEL SOLUTION AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TURNING GIL MORE TO
THE WEST BEYOND 3 DAYS.
 
A RECENT ASCAT-B PASS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE INITIAL WIND RADII
ASSOCIATED WITH GIL WHICH IN FACT IS A SMALL HURRICANE.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/2100Z 13.9N 120.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  01/0600Z 14.3N 122.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  01/1800Z 14.7N 124.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  02/0600Z 15.0N 126.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  02/1800Z 15.3N 128.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  03/1800Z 15.5N 131.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  04/1800Z 15.5N 135.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  05/1800Z 15.5N 138.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:24 UTC