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Tropical Depression SEVEN-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 30 2013
 
INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE SMALL
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE
ZONE ABOUT 700 N MI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA QUICKLY BECAME MORE ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...AND
IT APPEARS THAT IT HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BEING SET AT 25 KT BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0
FROM TAFB AND T1.0 FROM SAB.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY AN ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO...GIVING THE CYCLONE AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/14 KT.  THE
HIGH IS EXPECTED TO STAY RATHER STRONG FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO AND
THEN WEAKEN BEGINNING IN 72 HOURS.  THE DEPRESSION IS ALSO FORECAST
TO REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE IT TO DECELERATE BUT MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY BETWEEN DAYS 3 AND 5.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF MODEL
IS A LITTLE FASTER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE OTHER DYNAMICAL
MODELS DURING THE FIRST 4 DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  SINCE
CYCLONES USUALLY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ESCAPING FROM THE ITCZ...THE
NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE ECMWF AND IS JUST A LITTLE
SOUTHWEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE FOR MOST FORECAST TIME
PERIODS.
 
EXCEPT FOR THE FACT THAT THE DEPRESSION IS STILL EMBEDDED IN THE
ITCZ...WHICH OFTEN INHIBITS SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...THE
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION.  DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
IS LIGHT...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALMOST 29C...AND THERE IS
PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE.  THE INTENSITY MODELS ALL INDICATE
STRENGTHENING...AND IN FACT...THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX
IS INDICATING A 1 IN 3 CHANCE OF A 30-KT INCREASE IN WINDS DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES STEADY
STRENGTHENING...WITH THE SYSTEM HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/1500Z 12.2N 114.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  31/0000Z 12.9N 116.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  31/1200Z 13.6N 119.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 14.2N 121.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 14.8N 123.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  02/1200Z 15.7N 127.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  03/1200Z 16.5N 130.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  04/1200Z 17.0N 133.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:24 UTC