Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm FLOSSIE


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062013
800 AM PDT THU JUL 25 2013
 
SINCE THE BIG BURST OF CONVECTION ABOUT 12 HOURS AGO...THE STRUCTURE
OF THE CYCLONE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION. IN FACT...
T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE STILL 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY...BUT
FLOSSIE STILL HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SOME BEFORE THE
CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE
EFFECTS OF COOLER WATERS AND ADVERSE SHEAR MOST LIKELY WILL RESULT
IN WEAKENING THEREAFTER...AND FLOSSIE IS FORECAST TO BE A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...IF NOT SOONER.
 
MICROWAVE DATA AROUND 1200 UTC INDICATE THAT THE CENTER WAS A LITTLE
BIT SOUTH OF PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE OVERALL 
MOTION IS 275 DEGREES AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS. FLOSSIE IS FULLY EMBEDDED
WITHIN A DEEP LAYER OF EASTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS STEERING
PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING FLOSSIE
ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A
WEAKER FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL
TRADE WINDS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/1500Z 15.3N 125.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 15.5N 128.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 16.2N 131.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 17.0N 134.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 17.8N 137.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  28/1200Z 19.0N 143.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  29/1200Z 20.0N 148.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  30/1200Z 20.5N 154.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:22 UTC