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Hurricane ERICK


ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
BULLETIN
HURRICANE ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013
 
...CENTER OF ERICK STILL PARALLELING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 105.7W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO AND HAS ALSO DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE
WATCH EAST OF MANZANILLO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.7 WEST. ERICK IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H.  A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ERICK SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO...
BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD
BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. ERICK
IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE
SUNDAY AND PASS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA SUNDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TONIGHT. GRADUAL 
WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES...130 KM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE MAINLAND MEXICAN COAST IN THE WARNED AREA
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.
 
RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES OVER WESTERN GUERRERO...MICHOACAN...COLIMA...
JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ERICK ARE AFFECTING THE COAST OF
SOUTHWEST MEXICO.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:20 UTC