Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm ERICK


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
200 PM PDT MON JUL 08 2013
 
ERICK HAS TAKEN ON A SHEARED APPEARANCE...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
HAS BECOME EXPOSED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE NOT CHANGED...AND A
1730Z ASCAT PASS ALSO SUPPORTS HOLDING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 40
KT. THE APPARENT DECOUPLING OF THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS IS
LIKELY THE RESULT OF SUB-24C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BENEATH
ERICK...AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR BEING WRAPPED INTO ITS CIRCULATION.
THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...AND ERICK IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

ERICK HAS PROBABLY MADE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA COAST AND THE ESTIMATED MOTION IS 310/9. A RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON
THIS GENERAL HEADING FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD CAUSE THE REMNANT LOW TO MAKE A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS
NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND HAS NOT
CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/2100Z 22.6N 110.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 23.6N 112.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 24.7N 113.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 25.4N 115.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  10/1800Z 25.7N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/ZELINSKY
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:21 UTC