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Tropical Storm ERICK


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
200 AM PDT MON JUL 08 2013

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF ERICK HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS.  AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTING IN
BANDS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND
0415 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 40 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT.  BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED A BIT TO 45 KT.  ERICK IS ALREADY
OVER WATER TEMPERATURES BELOW 26C AND IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THESE
UNFAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CAUSE ERICK TO CONTINUE WEAKENING.  THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36
HOURS...WHEN IT IS FORECAST TO BE OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
NEAR 20C.  THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY
MODEL GUIDANCE. 

THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...
305/8.  THIS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  ERICK WILL BE MAKING ITS CLOSEST
APPROACH TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA LATER THIS
MORNING.  ONCE ERICK BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM IT IS FORECAST TO SLOW
DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH THIS
CYCLE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT
DIRECTION BUT LIES TO THE SOUTH OF SOME OF THE TYPICALLY
BETTER-PERFORMING MODELS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0900Z 21.3N 109.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  08/1800Z 22.1N 110.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  09/0600Z 23.5N 112.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  09/1800Z 24.5N 114.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  10/0600Z 25.2N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  11/0600Z 25.5N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:21 UTC