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Tropical Storm ERICK


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013
200 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013
 
ERICK CONTINUES TO GENERATE A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WITH TOPS
COLDER THAN -80C NEAR ITS CENTER...AND THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL
ATTEMPTS TO FORM AN EYE.  HOWEVER...ANALYSIS OF MICROWAVE DATA
DURING THE PAST 12-18 HOURS SHOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS HAVING TROUBLE
BECOMING VERTICALLY ALIGNED...WITH THE MID-LEVEL EYE CONSISTENTLY TO
THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB.  BASED ON THIS
AND THE OBSERVED STRUCTURE IN MICROWAVE DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT.

THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST BASED ON
THE MICROWAVE DATA...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 315/7.  A WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO STEER ERICK GENERALLY
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH THE MOTION
BECOMING MORE WESTWARD AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS A STRONGER RIDGE
OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  WHILE
THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD AND SOME SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER MODELS.  THE GFS
MOVES THE STORM ONSHORE SOUTH OF CABO CORRIENTES...WHILE THE UKMET
AND GFDL MODELS BRING THE CENTER CLOSE TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. 
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BASED IN THE SHORT-TERM ON THE INITIAL
POSITION AND IN THE LONGER TERM BY A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
GUIDANCE.  WHILE IT KEEPS THE CENTER OFFSHORE...ANY DEVIATION TO
THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER ON TO THE MEXICAN
COAST SIMILAR TO THE GFS FORECAST.

IF THE CYCLONE DOES NOT HIT THE MEXICAN COAST...IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN
TO A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...ERICK SHOULD
MOVE OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WHICH COULD BE AS
COLD AS 20-21C BY THE 96 HOUR POINT.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE RAPID
WEAKENING...WITH THE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT
LOW AROUND 96 HOURS.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

SINCE THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...THE
GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUNTA SAN
TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0900Z 17.3N 103.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 18.0N 104.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 19.0N 105.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 20.3N 107.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  08/0600Z 21.5N 108.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  09/0600Z 23.0N 112.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  10/0600Z 24.0N 116.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  11/0600Z 24.0N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:21 UTC