Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm DALILA


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013
800 AM PDT THU JUL 04 2013
 
DRY AIR AND EASTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON DALILA AS THE DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM HAS DIMINISHED VERY QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT.  SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO
35 KT WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE LATEST T-NUMBERS AND EARLIER
OSCAT DATA.  ALTHOUGH DALILA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER MARGINALLY
WARM SSTS FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...THE DRY AIR AND SHEAR ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE.  DALILA IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER IF
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP.
 
DALILA APPEARS TO BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST OR 265
DEGREES AT 6 KT. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
IS FORECAST AS THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE
SHIFTS EASTWARD.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT DALILA OR ITS REMNANTS COULD INTERACT WITH THE NEW
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEAST.  BECAUSE OF THIS POSSIBILITY...
THE TRACK DURING THE POST-TROPICAL PHASE IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/1500Z 17.4N 109.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 17.3N 110.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  05/1200Z 17.4N 111.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  06/0000Z 17.7N 113.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/1200Z 18.0N 114.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/1200Z 18.5N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/1200Z 18.8N 118.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:19 UTC