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Tropical Storm DALILA


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013
200 PM PDT MON JUL 01 2013
 
THE INNER CORE OF DALILA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...
AND UW-CIMSS HAVE CONVERGED TO A CONSENSUS T-NUMBER OF 3.5...SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 55 KT. ALTHOUGH DALILA IS
LOCATED IN A SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF VERY WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...A
PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT HAS DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF
THE STORM WHICH SUGGESTS THAT DRY AIR MAY BE ENTRAINING INTO THE
CIRCULATION. MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE NOW FORECASTS DALILA TO
BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE SPREAD
AMONG THE MODELS IS HIGH...ESPECIALLY REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE DRY
AIR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE
TO WEAKEN IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
NOT CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND NOW LIES
VERY NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST.
 
THE CENTER OF DALILA HAS BEEN OBSCURED BY A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
FEATURE. MICROWAVE-BASED CENTER FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE HAS
BEGUN TO TURN AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN COAST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION
IS 295/6. WHILE THE REASONING BEHIND THE TRACK FORECAST IS
UNCHANGED...THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY HIGH. THE
ECMWF FORECASTS A NEARLY DUE SOUTH TRACK...WHILE THE GFS FORECASTS
A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 120 HOURS. THESE DISCREPANCIES
APPEAR TO BE RELATED TO THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE CYCLONE
VORTEX. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH
HAS A STRONGER VORTEX...MORE IN LINE WITH THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST...THE
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS ALSO VERY HIGH.
 
SINCE DALILA HAS BEGUN TO MOVE AWAY FROM MEXICO...THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE COAST OF THAT COUNTRY HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED. HOWEVER...THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO
THROUGH TONIGHT.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/2100Z 17.9N 106.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 18.2N 107.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 18.4N 107.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 18.5N 108.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 18.5N 109.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 18.5N 110.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  05/1800Z 18.5N 112.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  06/1800Z 18.5N 115.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:18 UTC