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Tropical Depression FOUR-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013
800 PM PDT SAT JUN 29 2013
 
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO HAS NOW ACQUIRED
ENOUGH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN FEATURES A SMALL AREA OF CENTRAL
CONVECTION NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CENTER WITH SOME RAGGED CONVECTIVE
BANDS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTHEAST. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST
THAT THE CENTER MAY BE SOMEWHAT ELONGATED...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE
SITUATED NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 360/09...GIVEN
THAT THE CYCLONE IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGES. THE SYNOPTIC
SITUATION FEATURES A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE
DEPRESSION AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST. THESE FEATURES
SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
THEN THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
THE CYCLONE TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY 48 HOURS...FOLLLOWED BY 
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE GFS MODEL TRACK THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...SEVERAL OF THEM DO NOT
INITIALIZE THE DEPRESSION VERY WELL. GIVEN THIS...CONFIDENCE IN THE
DETAILS OF THE TRACK FORECAST IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE.
 
THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING DURING
THE FIRST 72 HOURS OR SO...AS THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER VERY WARM
WATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING. GIVEN THE APPARENTLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE HIGH END OF
THE GUIDANCE AND SHOWS THE CYCLONE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72
HOURS...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND HWRF MODELS. BY DAY
4...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN SLOW WEAKENING.
 
AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO...A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AND WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST
COAST OF MEXICO.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0300Z 13.7N 103.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 14.9N 103.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 16.1N 103.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  01/1200Z 17.1N 104.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  02/0000Z 17.9N 105.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  03/0000Z 19.2N 107.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  04/0000Z 19.5N 108.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  05/0000Z 19.5N 111.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:18 UTC