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Tropical Depression ONE-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012013
800 AM PDT WED MAY 15 2013
 
THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON HAS WASTED NO TIME
GETTING STARTED.  THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WE HAVE BEEN
MONITORING SOUTH OF THE MEXICAN COAST BECAME BETTER ORGANIZED
OVERNIGHT...AND A NEARLY UNBROKEN BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION NOW WRAPS
AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.  DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW T2.0 FROM TAFB AND
T1.5 FROM SAB...SO THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A 30-KT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT.  THE DEPRESSION
IS SITUATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PACIFIC
WATERS.  EVEN THOUGH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS LIKELY TO AMPLIFY IN THE
VICINITY OF CALIFORNIA IN THE COMING DAYS...THE DEPRESSION IS SO
FAR SOUTH THAT ANY EFFECTS ON STEERING SHOULD BE MINIMAL.  A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS POSSIBLE IN 4 TO 5 DAYS ONCE THE SYSTEM
REACHES THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE.  THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE SOLUTIONS THAT SHOW A
STRONGER SYSTEM...SPECIFICALLY THE GFS...BAM MEDIUM...AND BAM DEEP.

THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN A ZONE OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO
THE EAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET...AND IT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE
WARMEST WATERS OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT STRENGTHENING FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS
BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND
APPROACHES COOLER WATERS.  SINCE CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE...IT
SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THE DEPRESSION SHOULD AT LEAST BE ABLE TO
KEEP UP WITH A CLIMATOLOGICAL INTENSIFICATION RATE.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST THEREFORE SHOWS FASTER STRENGTHENING AND A HIGHER PEAK
INTENSITY THAN SHIPS AND LGEM SINCE THE CLIMATOLOGY-PERSISTENCE
MODEL SHIFOR IS HIGHER THAN EITHER OF THOSE TWO MODELS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/1500Z  8.2N 103.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z  8.6N 105.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z  9.1N 107.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z  9.5N 108.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  17/1200Z 10.0N 110.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  18/1200Z 11.5N 113.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  19/1200Z 13.0N 115.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  20/1200Z 15.5N 117.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:14 UTC