Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm MELISSA


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142013
1100 PM AST WED NOV 20 2013

A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION IS PERSISTING NEAR THE CENTER OF
MELISSA... THOUGH THE CONVECTION IS A BIT WEAKER THAN EARLIER
TODAY.  THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT KEEPING
THE WINDS AT 45 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DOES NOT
SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STRENGTH OF MELISSA FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...DESPITE THE STORM MOVING OVER RATHER COLD WATERS. 
THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE MITIGATING FACTORS OF A DIVERGENT AND
COLD UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH LOW SHEAR.  NONETHELESS...
IT IS HARD TO SEE MELISSA REMAINING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THIS TIME
TOMORROW WHILE IT MOVES ACROSS SUB-18C WATERS.  EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS EXPECTED IN 36H OR SO AS MELISSA ENCOUNTERS A MORE
BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT AND A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHEAR. THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
MELISSA IS ZIPPING ALONG TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 26 KT. 
THE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE TRACK SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND
EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE STORM MOVES SOUTH OF
A CUTOFF LOW IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.  GUIDANCE IS
TRENDING SOUTHWARD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED IN THAT
DIRECTION.
 
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AZORES LATE TOMORROW AFTER MELISSA LOSES TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  21/0300Z 38.1N  42.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 39.6N  37.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  22/0000Z 41.2N  31.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 36H  22/1200Z 42.4N  25.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  23/0000Z 42.8N  21.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  24/0000Z 41.0N  16.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:10 UTC