Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Subtropical Storm MELISSA


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
SUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142013
1100 AM EDT MON NOV 18 2013
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS NEAR THE
WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF A LARGE GALE-AREA LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WELL TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.  FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
NEAR THE CENTER APPEAR TO HAVE DISSIPATED AND SO ADVISORIES ARE
BEING INITIATED AT THIS TIME.  ALTHOUGH THERE ARE HINTS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAVING RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE INNER CORE
CONVECTION...THE SYSTEM IS STILL WELL-EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA SUGGEST
THAT THE CYCLONE MAY STILL HAVE A LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS. 
AS A RESULT...THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM
RATHER THAN A TROPICAL STORM...AT LEAST FOR NOW.  

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTHWESTWARD...OR 320/08 KT. NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON MELISSA MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY SLOWING DOWN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO AS IT MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE
RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN THE CYCLONE AND THE AZORES. THE CYCLONE COULD
POSSIBLY BECOME STATIONARY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ON TUESDAY WHEN THE
SYSTEM MOVES UNDERNEATH A 200 MB LOW/TROUGH. HOWEVER...BY 48 HORUS
AND BEYOND...A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CANADA AND THE UNITED SATES IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE MELISSA TO
THE NORTHEAST. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...MELISSA IS FORECAST OT INTERACT
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEPENING TROUGH AND TURN BACK TOWARD THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.

MELISSA HAS ABOUT 48 HOURS OR SO TO STRENGTHEN...AND THE SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL INDICATES THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY 36 HOURS. THE WEAKENING SHEAR SHOULD
ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR WHILE THE
CYCLONE REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER...BUT ALSO ALLOW FOR THE
TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE ICON INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT MELISSA COULD ATTAIN HURRICANE STATUS IN
36-48 HOURS WHEN THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS AT A MINIMUM.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  18/1500Z 29.3N  53.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 30.2N  54.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 31.3N  54.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  20/0000Z 33.6N  52.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  20/1200Z 36.6N  48.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  21/1200Z 42.8N  39.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  22/1200Z 50.0N  35.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  23/1200Z 55.0N  39.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:10 UTC