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Tropical Storm KAREN


ZCZC MIAPWSAT2 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM KAREN SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122013               
1300 UTC THU OCT 03 2013                                            
                                                                    
AT 1300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       1       1       2      11      41      55
TROP DEPRESSION  1       3       4      12      17      38      19
TROPICAL STORM  84      65      51      57      59      17      16
HURRICANE       15      32      44      28      14       4      10
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       14      28      37      23      12       3       9
HUR CAT 2        1       3       5       4       1       1       1
HUR CAT 3        1       1       2       1       X       X       1
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   55KT    60KT    65KT    60KT    50KT    25KT    20KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
NEW YORK CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   7(14)   1(15)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)
 
MAYPORT NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   6( 9)   X( 9)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   6( 9)   3(12)   X(12)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)  13(19)   4(23)   1(24)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)  12(18)   4(22)   X(22)
ST MARKS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   8(13)  14(27)   3(30)   X(30)
APALACHICOLA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
APALACHICOLA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   8(15)  11(26)   3(29)   X(29)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)  10(16)  20(36)   2(38)   X(38)
PANAMA CITY FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
PANAMA CITY FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   9(24)   X(24)
COLUMBUS GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  16(21)   8(29)   1(30)
MONTGOMERY AL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
MONTGOMERY AL  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)  15(23)  26(49)   3(52)   1(53)
PENSACOLA FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  12(16)   1(17)   X(17)
PENSACOLA FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   4( 4)  18(22)  21(43)  14(57)   1(58)   X(58)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)  11(21)   1(22)   X(22)
GFMX 290N 870W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   7( 7)  14(21)  24(45)   3(48)   X(48)
MOBILE AL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  10(13)   1(14)   X(14)
MOBILE AL      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)  15(24)  20(44)   2(46)   X(46)
GULFPORT MS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   1(13)   X(13)
GULFPORT MS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
STENNIS MS     34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)  14(22)  16(38)   2(40)   X(40)
STENNIS MS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
STENNIS MS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   3( 3)  14(17)  20(37)  14(51)   X(51)   1(52)
BURAS LA       50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   9(18)   X(18)   X(18)
BURAS LA       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  1   9(10)  41(51)  14(65)   6(71)   1(72)   X(72)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  X   1( 1)  19(20)  13(33)   4(37)   1(38)   X(38)
GFMX 280N 890W 64  X   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   9(12)   1(13)   X(13)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)  12(19)  12(31)   1(32)   X(32)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   3( 3)  14(17)  10(27)   5(32)   X(32)   X(32)
GFMX 280N 910W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
GFMX 280N 910W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   7(16)   1(17)   X(17)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   5(12)   1(13)   X(13)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MERIDA MX      34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN                                                  
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:08 UTC