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Tropical Storm KAREN


ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122013
100 AM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013
 
...DISORGANIZED KAREN WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 90.9W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.9 WEST. KAREN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST LATER
TODAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF KAREN IS ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR THE COAST IN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TONIGHT.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.  AN OIL PLATFORM NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH...
63 KM/HR...AT AN ELEVATION OF 750 FEET.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.59 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
 
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS.
THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE
PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
 
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO TERREBONNE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE PEARL RIVER...2 TO 4 FT
EAST OF THE PEARL RIVER TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
APALACHEE BAY INCLUDING CEDAR KEY...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT
 
THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED
FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL
CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
 
RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT
OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:07 UTC