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Tropical Storm JERRY


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112013
1100 AM AST MON SEP 30 2013

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE PERSISTENT...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB ARE BOTH 35 KT...AND THE CYCLONE IS BEING UPGRADED TO
A TROPICAL STORM ON THIS ADVISORY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR
SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE STORM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  AT
THIS TIME...THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HOSTILE ENOUGH TO
PREVENT AT LEAST A LITTLE STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 
IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
SPREAD IN THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND THEREFORE THE WIND
SPEED FORECAST FOR THAT TIME IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE.

CENTER FIXES FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE STORM
HAS MOVED A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST THAN EARLIER ESTIMATED...AND
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 090/6.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
PREDICT AN AMPLIFYING MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH OF JERRY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS STEERING SCENARIO
SHOULD RESULT IN THE STORM DECELERATING AND MOVING IN A CLOCKWISE
LOOP DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS...AS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST.  IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING THAT JERRY MAY NOT GET PICKED UP BY THE NEXT TROUGH IN
THE WESTERLIES...AND THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/1500Z 27.0N  45.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  01/0000Z 26.6N  45.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  01/1200Z 26.3N  45.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 26.2N  46.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 26.3N  47.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  03/1200Z 27.3N  49.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  04/1200Z 28.5N  49.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  05/1200Z 30.5N  46.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Apr-2014 23:29:06 UTC