Tropical Storm INGRID

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TROPICAL STORM INGRID SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013
700 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013
 
DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT INGRID HAS STRENGTHENED. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS
FALLEN TO 993 MB...AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR WINDS INDICATE THAT THE
INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 50 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA
FROM MEXICO INDICATE THE PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS ALSO
IMPROVED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
CDO FEATURE AND A LARGE CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
OBSERVED INTENSIFICATION AND NOW SHOWS INGRID REACHING HURRICANE
INTENSITY IN 48 HOURS.
 
AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE WIND FIELD HAS EXPANDED IN
SIZE...AND THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
OUTWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST.
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST.
 
AS A RESULT OF THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION TO
THE INCREASED THREAT OF WINDS...THE COMBINATION OF THE MOIST FLOW
FROM BOTH INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS...AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER
EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
NOTE THAT THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY TAKES THE PLACE OF THE 700 PM
CDT...0000 UTC...INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0000Z 19.2N  95.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 19.5N  95.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 20.8N  95.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 21.7N  96.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 22.3N  97.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  16/1800Z 22.5N  99.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 96H  17/1800Z 22.5N 100.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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