Tropical Depression TEN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013
1000 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013
 
THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION FEATURES A PRIMARY BAND
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER THAT HAS SHOWN A LITTLE MORE CURVATURE
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB.
WHILE THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER VERY WARM WATER...MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AS INDICATED MOST
STRONGLY BY THE GFS MODEL...WHICH DRIVES THE SHIPS INTENSITY
GUIDANCE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD A
BIT...BUT REMAINS BELOW THE SHIPS MODEL. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE INLAND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND THEREFORE
SHOW A MUCH WEAKER CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE SLOWING DOWN...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 270/02. STEERING CURRENTS WILL REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SLOW ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THAT
TIME. BY 72 HOURS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A FASTER MOTION
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED
NORTHWARD THIS CYCLE IN RESPONSE TO THE GFS SHOWING A SOMEWHAT
WEAKER RIDGE AND A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK AT DAYS 3 AND 4. THE NHC
TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION AND IS CLOSE TO TVCA...
BUT A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE IS
STILL ORGANIZING...AND THE WEAK STEERING PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE
LARGER THAN USUAL. 

THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL
BE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  13/0300Z 19.7N  94.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  13/1200Z 19.6N  94.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  14/0000Z 19.4N  94.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  14/1200Z 19.4N  94.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  15/0000Z 19.8N  94.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  16/0000Z 21.5N  96.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  17/0000Z 23.0N  98.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  18/0000Z 24.0N 100.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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